Critical Care Nephrology · Two-Week Intensive · Lecture 4 of 9

Biomarkers, Risk Scores & Imaging in AKI

Detecting kidney injury before creatinine catches up — and knowing which of these tests should change what you do next

40 minutes Nephrology Fellows Week 1

Based on Koyner, Handbook of Critical Care Nephrology (2021) · NTUH Yunlin Branch

Learning objectives

By the end of this session you will be able to…

  1. Name the five mechanisms that make creatinine lie, and correct for them with cystatin C or a kinetic eGFR.
  2. Place any patient in the damage × function 2×2 and say what subclinical AKI means for their care.
  3. Quote the derivation cohort, cut-off and AUC for NGAL and [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] — and their failure modes.
  4. Run and interpret a furosemide stress test, and rank it against the biomarker panel.
  5. Grade venous congestion with VExUS and counsel a team on contrast risk using PRESERVE and AMACING.

Koyner Ch 7, 8, 16–18, 44 · Ronco Ch 9, 24–27, 33 · KDIGO 2012 AKI Guideline

01

Why creatinine is not enough

A century-old marker of a filtration function, used as a marker of injury — the mismatch explains most of our diagnostic delay.

Koyner Ch 16 · Ronco Ch 9, 25

Five ways creatinine lies in the ICU

It lags

Creatinine-defined AKI is detected on average 2–3 days after the insult. Every nephrotoxin given in that window is given blind.

It is diluted

Volume of distribution expands with resuscitation. A patient +8 L can hold a "stable" creatinine while GFR halves.

It tracks muscle, not kidney

Production falls with sarcopenia, sepsis, immobility and liver failure. A creatinine of 0.6 in a cachectic ICU patient may be a GFR of 40.

It is secreted

10–15% of clearance is proximal tubular secretion via OCT2/MATE — block the transporter and the number rises with no change in filtration.

The fifth, and the most important

Creatinine reports function, never damage. It cannot distinguish a haemodynamic rise (SGLT2 inhibitor, RAAS blockade, effective diuresis) from acute tubular injury — and those two states deserve opposite management.

Moledina DG, Parikh CR. Semin Nephrol. 2018;38:3–11 · Koyner Ch 16 · Ronco Ch 25

The arithmetic of the lag — and how to beat it

Steady state: GFR × SCr = creatinine generation
Non-steady state (the ICU): SCr is still rising toward its new plateau

KeGFR = (SCr₁ × eGFR₁) / SCrmean × [ 1 − (24 × ΔSCr) / (Δt × MaxΔSCr/day) ]
MaxΔSCr per day ≈ creatinine production ÷ volume of distribution ≈ 1.5 mg/dL/day at GFR 0. If creatinine rises 0.8 mg/dL in 12 h, the instantaneous GFR is already near zero — the plateau value is 3 days away.
  • A single creatinine in a non-steady state is uninterpretable as an eGFR — every CKD-EPI, MDRD and Cockcroft–Gault equation assumes steady state
  • Kinetic eGFR converts the rate of rise into a real-time filtration estimate; useful for drug dosing and for arguing an early consult
  • A falling creatinine can equally mislead: dilution and reduced generation both lower it without recovery

Chen S. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2013;24:877–888 · Ronco Ch 25 · Koyner Ch 16

Drugs and assays that raise creatinine without touching GFR

AgentMechanismTypical riseWhat to do
TrimethoprimBlocks OCT2/MATE tubular secretion of creatinine0.2–0.4 mg/dL within daysRecheck cystatin C; do not stop a needed antibiotic reflexively
CimetidineSame transporter block (historically used to "correct" clearance)0.2–0.4 mg/dLSwitch to famotidine if the number is confusing care
Cobicistat, ritonavirMATE1 inhibition; pharmacokinetic boosters~0.1–0.2 mg/dL, plateaus by week 4Expect it; a further rise is real injury
Dolutegravir, bictegravirOCT2 inhibition~0.1–0.15 mg/dL, early and stableEstablish the new baseline, then trend from it
Flucytosine, cefoxitin, high ketonesChromogen interference with the Jaffe assayVariable, can be largeAsk the laboratory for an enzymatic assay
Creatine supplements, cooked meat loadIncreased creatinine generation0.1–0.3 mg/dLDietary history before the workup
Pitfall 1 — treating the assay instead of the patient

A creatinine that rises promptly, plateaus, and is unaccompanied by any change in urine output, sediment or electrolyte handling is a transporter or assay artefact until proven otherwise. Cystatin C settles it in one blood tube; a kidney biopsy and a cancelled antiretroviral do not.

Koyner Ch 16 · Ronco Ch 25 · Inker LA et al. N Engl J Med. 2021;385:1737–1749

Cystatin C and the 2021 race-free equations

  • 13.3 kDa protein made by all nucleated cells at a near-constant rate; >99% filtered, then catabolised by the proximal tubule — so plasma level tracks GFR and urine level tracks proximal tubular injury
  • Independent of muscle mass: the right test in the cachectic, cirrhotic, paraplegic or amputee patient
  • Meta-analysis AUC for diagnosing AKI 0.89; rises roughly 12–24 h earlier than creatinine
  • Confounded by: corticosteroids (raise it), thyroid dysfunction (hyper raises, hypo lowers), smoking, obesity, high cell turnover and some inflammatory states
  • Cleared by high-flux and CRRT membranes — uninterpretable during kidney replacement therapy

Order it when

  • Creatinine and the clinical picture disagree
  • You must dose a narrow-therapeutic-index drug
  • The patient has no usable muscle mass
  • You suspect a secretion-blocking drug
eGFRcr-cys (CKD-EPI 2021) uses creatinine + cystatin C + age + sex — and no race coefficient
The combined equation is more accurate than either marker alone (P30 ≈ 86–92% vs ~80% for creatinine alone) and is the preferred estimate whenever a decision hangs on the number.

Inker LA, Eneanya ND, Coresh J, et al. N Engl J Med. 2021;385:1737–1749 · Yong Z et al. Sci Rep. 2017;7:41012 · Ronco Ch 25 · Koyner Ch 16

02

Damage, function & the 2×2

Two independent axes — injury and filtration — and four clinically distinct quadrants that a creatinine alone collapses into two.

Koyner Ch 16–17 · Ronco Ch 24, 26–27

The damage × function matrix

Damage marker negativeDamage marker positive
Creatinine / UO normalNo AKI — the reassuring quadrantSubclinical AKI — injury without a functional signal. Deceased-donor biopsies: about half of kidneys with histologic acute tubular injury had no creatinine-defined AKI
Creatinine / UO abnormalHaemodynamic / functional AKI — RAAS blockade, SGLT2 inhibitor, effective decongestion, permissive hypotension. Tubule intactClinical AKI with damage — true tubular injury. The quadrant our therapies were designed for

Why the left-lower box matters

In ADHF undergoing aggressive diuresis, NGAL and KIM-1 did not rise in patients whose creatinine went up — the "worsening renal function" was haemodynamic, not injury. Same story in SPRINT: intensive BP control raised creatinine and "CKD" incidence while YKL-40 and KIM-1 were lower.

Why the right-upper box matters

Pooled prospective cohorts: NGAL-positive / creatinine-negative patients had higher rates of kidney replacement therapy and death than NGAL-negative / creatinine-negative patients. Subclinical injury is not a laboratory curiosity.

Haase M et al. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2011;57:1752–1761 · Ahmad T et al. Circulation. 2018;137:2016–2028 · Moledina DG et al. Am J Kidney Dis. 2017;70:807–816 · Koyner Ch 16

The damage biomarker menu — biology, sample, window

MarkerBiologySamplePeak after insultSignal strength
NGAL (25 kDa)Lipocalin upregulated in thick ascending limb and collecting ductUrine or plasma2–3 h, detectable by 3 hPlasma AUC 0.80 for AKI progression (TRIBE-AKI)
KIM-1 (38.7 kDa)Transmembrane protein on dedifferentiated proximal tubuleUrine12 h, persists ~48 hBest for established ischaemic injury; poor for early warning
IL-18 (22 kDa)Caspase-1–dependent proinflammatory cytokineUrine6 hSeparates ATN from prerenal azotaemia; inflammation-confounded
L-FABP (14 kDa)Proximal tubular fatty-acid handling; oxidative stress sensorUrine6 hApproved in Japan; strongest data in cardiac surgery
[TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7]G1 cell-cycle arrest — "kidney stress", not yet necrosisUrine4–12 hFDA-cleared 2014; AUC 0.80 for stage 2–3 AKI in 12 h
Cystatin C (urine)Filtered then normally fully reabsorbed — its appearance means proximal tubular failureUrine12–24 hDual function/damage reader

Ronco Ch 26–27 · Krawczeski CD et al. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2011 · Koyner JL et al. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2012;23:905–914 · Koyner Ch 16

NGAL — the most studied, the most confounded

Where it earns its keep

  • Paediatric cardiac surgery: urinary NGAL rose ≥50-fold at 2 h after bypass and preceded the creatinine rise by ≥24 h in every child who developed AKI
  • TRIBE-AKI adults: highest tertile of plasma NGAL carried an odds ratio 7.7 (95% CI 2.6–22.5) for AKI progression
  • Emergency department: separates transient from sustained AKI in >600 patients
  • Higher levels at the time of AKI predict 3-year mortality

Where it fails

  • NGAL is also a neutrophil granule protein — sepsis, pneumonia, UTI and any systemic inflammation raise it with no tubular injury
  • CKD raises the baseline; pyuria raises the urine value
  • Plasma and urine assays are not interchangeable and are not standardised across laboratories
  • No trial has shown that acting on an NGAL result improves any patient outcome
How to use it if your laboratory offers it

Read NGAL as a trend within one patient against a known insult time, in a population with a high pre-test probability. A single value in an undifferentiated septic patient carries almost no information.

Mishra J et al. Lancet. 2005;365:1231–1238 · Koyner JL et al. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2012;23:905–914 · Nickolas TL et al. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2012;59:246–255 · Ronco Ch 26

Cell-cycle arrest: why [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] is different

The idea
Damage markers report cells that are already injured. Cell-cycle arrest markers report cells that have stopped dividing to protect themselves — stress before structural damage.
The mechanism
ROS, PAMPs and DAMPs push tubular cells into the cell cycle; IGFBP7 induces p53/p21 and TIMP-2 induces p27, which block CyclD-CDK4 and CyclE-CDK2 and impose a transient G1/S arrest.
Why arrest helps
It prevents division with damaged DNA and conserves ATP during a bioenergetic crisis. In sepsis models the G1:S ratio rises within 6 h, subsides by 24 h, and functional recovery follows at 72 h.
Why it is measurable
Both proteins are secreted into the tubular lumen and appear in urine, so a single voided or catheter sample reads the whole nephron population.
The division of labour
IGFBP7 performs better in surgical patients; TIMP-2 performs better in sepsis. The product of the two was chosen as the panel.

Kashani K et al. Crit Care. 2013;17:R25 · Ronco Ch 27 · Koyner Ch 16

Sapphire — the derivation, and the two numbers you must remember

SAPPHIRE · Crit Care 2013;17:R25

Discovery in 522 critically ill adults without AKI at enrolment; >340 candidate proteins screened. Validation in 728 patients across 35 centres in North America and Europe, all within 24 h of ICU admission, KDIGO stage 2–3 excluded. Endpoint: moderate-to-severe AKI within 12 h. [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] AUC 0.80 — beating NGAL, KIM-1, IL-18 and every other marker tested, and improving every clinical model it was added to.

≤ 0.3(ng/mL)²/1000 — sensitivity 92%, specificity 46%. A negative test genuinely rules out imminent stage 2–3 AKI
0.3 – 2.0Kidney stress present. Positive predictive value ~25% — monitor, de-risk, do not act irreversibly
> 2.0Specificity 90%; positive predictive value ~50%. Roughly a 7-fold higher risk than a negative test
Report units are (ng/mL)² / 1000 — a printed "0.3" is 300 (ng/mL)²
Assay CV 10% at the 0.3 cut-off; limit of quantitation 0.002. Interference at albumin >1250 mg/L, conjugated bilirubin >72 mg/L, methylene blue >0.49 mg/L. Stable 6 h at room temperature, 24 h refrigerated.

Kashani K, Al-Khafaji A, Ardiles T, et al. Crit Care. 2013;17:R25 · Ronco Ch 27

Topaz and Opal — validation, and the limits of validation

TOPAZ · Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2014;189:932

420 patients, 23 US centres, enrolled within 24 h of ICU admission; AKI within 12 h adjudicated by three blinded experts. Adding urinary [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] at the 0.3 cut-off lifted the clinical model from AUC 0.70 (0.63–0.76) to 0.86 (0.80–0.90). Patients above 0.3 had roughly a 7-fold higher risk of moderate-severe AKI.

OPAL · Nephrol Dial Transpl 2014;29:2054

154 patients at six US sites, run on the commercial NephroCheck platform locally rather than a central ELISA. Confirmed the two Sapphire thresholds: sensitivity 89% at 0.3 and specificity 90% at 2.0. This is the study that made the cut-offs usable at a bedside analyser.

Pitfall 2 — using the test outside the population it was built in

Every one of these cohorts excluded patients already in KDIGO stage 2–3 and enrolled within 24 h of ICU admission. The test answers one question: "will this adult (≥21 y) critically ill patient develop stage 2–3 AKI in the next 12 hours?" It does not diagnose established AKI, does not stage it, does not identify the cause, and performs poorly when the pre-test probability is low. Sending it on a stable ward patient generates cost and anxiety, not information.

Bihorac A et al. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2014;189:932–939 · Hoste EAJ et al. Nephrol Dial Transplant. 2014;29:2054–2061 · Ronco Ch 27

Timing is the whole game

MarkerDraw itQuestion it answersDo not draw it when
[TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7]0–12 h after a defined insult (ICU admission, bypass, laparotomy)Will stage 2–3 AKI appear in 12 h?Stage 2–3 AKI already present
NGAL2–6 h after insult, then seriallyIs there tubular injury now?Undifferentiated sepsis with no insult time
IL-18 / L-FABP6 hInjury vs pure haemodynamicsSystemic inflammatory states (IL-18)
KIM-112–48 hDid injury actually occur?You need an early warning
Cystatin C (plasma)12–24 h; seriallyWhat is the real GFR?On CRRT; on steroids; thyroid disease
CreatinineEvery day, foreverStaging, trials, outcomes — the anchorNever; just never read it alone
Key point

Damage markers rise and fall on the clock of the insult, not the clock of the ward round. A biomarker drawn 48 h after cardiopulmonary bypass has missed its own window and will read negative in a genuinely injured kidney.

Krawczeski CD et al. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2011 · Ronco Ch 26–27 · Koyner Ch 16

Order with intent — biomarker stewardship

01

Pre-testName the insult and its time zero. No insult, no test.

02

Pre-commitWrite down what a high and a low result will each change, before you send it.

03

PairAdd a functional test (FST) to a damage marker — different axes, additive information.

04

DocumentRisk class, actions taken, recheck interval. An uninterpreted result is a wasted one.

Actions a high result should trigger

  • Stop or dose-adjust every nephrotoxin; review contrast plans
  • Hourly urine output, daily weights, formal haemodynamic optimisation
  • Avoid hyperglycaemia; hold ACEi/ARB for 48 h post-operatively
  • Early nephrology involvement and a KRT plan on paper

Actions it must never trigger

  • Starting kidney replacement therapy — the test predicts, it does not prescribe (see Lecture 08 on timing)
  • A diuretic given "to protect the kidney"
  • Cancelling an indicated contrast study
  • A kidney biopsy without an independent indication

Ostermann M et al. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3:e2019209 (ADQI 23) · Koyner Ch 8, 16

The newer entrants: proenkephalin and CCL14

Proenkephalin A 119–159 (penKid)

  • A ~4.9 kDa stable fragment of the enkephalin precursor; freely filtered, not protein-bound, not produced by inflammation
  • Behaves as a functional marker: tracks measured GFR in real time and is not confounded by sepsis-driven cytokine release the way cystatin C-era markers were feared to be
  • In the Kid-SSS analysis of AdrenOSS-1, an elevated admission penKid identified septic patients who went on to major adverse kidney events — before any creatinine change
  • Not yet FDA-cleared for routine US practice; assay availability and thresholds still vary by cohort

Urinary CCL14

  • A monocyte-recruiting chemokine; answers a different and harder question — who with established stage 2–3 AKI will stay there
  • RUBY: predicted persistent severe AKI (stage 3 lasting ≥72 h) with AUC 0.83 (0.78–0.87), outperforming every marker in the comparison set
  • Two thresholds mirroring the NephroCheck logic: a low-value rule-out (~1.3 ng/mL) and a high-value rule-in (~13 ng/mL)
  • Clinical use case: rationing KRT resources and framing goals-of-care conversations, not preventing AKI

Hollinger A et al. Kidney Int Rep. 2018;3:1424–1433 (Kid-SSS) · Hoste E et al. Intensive Care Med. 2020;46:943–953 (RUBY) · Koyner Ch 17

Why biomarkers alone changed nothing — and what did

A test improves outcomes only when it is welded to an intervention that works. Two decades of biomarker studies measured discrimination; the trials that mattered measured what happened when someone acted on the number.

PrevAKI · Intensive Care Med 2017;43:1551

276 cardiac surgery patients randomised only if post-operative [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] >0.3. Intervention = the KDIGO bundle (avoid nephrotoxins, stop ACEi/ARB 48 h, tight glucose, avoid contrast, PiCCO-guided haemodynamic optimisation to SVV <11, CI >3, MAP >65). AKI at 72 h 55.1% vs 71.1% (p = 0.004); stage 2–3 AKI 29.7% vs 44.9% (p = 0.009). No mortality difference.

BigpAK · Ann Surg 2018;267:1013

121 patients after major abdominal surgery, same biomarker trigger, a lighter bundle. Any-stage AKI 32% vs 48% (p = 0.07, primary endpoint not met); stage 2–3 AKI 7% vs 20% (p = 0.04), with shorter ICU and hospital stay.

PrevAKI-Multicentre · Anesth Analg 2021;133:292

Multicentre replication in biomarker-positive cardiac surgery patients: moderate-to-severe AKI 14.0% vs 23.9% with the bundle, without a change in any-stage AKI, KRT or mortality. The effect is real but modest, and it belongs to the bundle — the biomarker only selects who gets it.

Meersch M et al. Intensive Care Med. 2017;43:1551–1561 · Göcze I et al. Ann Surg. 2018;267:1013–1020 · Zarbock A et al. Anesth Analg. 2021;133:292–302 · Koyner Ch 8

03

Stress-testing the kidney

Cardiology stresses the heart before it fails; we can stress the glomerulus with protein and the tubule with furosemide — and the cheap test wins.

Ronco Ch 9 · Koyner Ch 16

Renal functional reserve — a normal GFR is not a safe GFR

  • Healthy subjects raise GFR measurably 1–2 h after an acute protein load of 1–1.2 g/kg (red meat is the classic stimulus; IV amino acids do the same)
  • RFR = maxGFR − baseline GFR. Mechanism: filtered amino acids resensitise the macula densa, releasing NO and prostaglandins → afferent vasodilation and nephron recruitment
  • RFR falls with age, nephron loss, hyperfiltration states and pregnancy — in each trimester baseline GFR climbs while maxGFR does not, so reserve is progressively spent
  • Creatinine stays normal until roughly 50% of nephron mass is gone: the living kidney donor with a "normal" eGFR has already lost half of the reserve
  • Losing reserve also means losing autoregulatory range — this is the physiology behind the NSAID- and volume-sensitivity of the CKD patient (Lecture 02)

Why it is not routine

Cardiologists stress-test because they can act on a positive result. We have had no equivalent intervention — so the test stayed in the laboratory. That may change: reduced RFR is the most plausible mechanism by which "fully recovered" AKI survivors go on to develop CKD (Lecture 09).

Bosch JP et al. Am J Med. 1983;75:943 · Fliser D et al. Kidney Int. 1993 · Ronco Ch 9

The furosemide stress test — the protocol, exactly

1

Select — KDIGO stage 1 or 2 AKI, and the patient must be euvolemic. Correct hypovolaemia first; the test is unsafe and uninterpretable in a volume-depleted patient.

2

Dose — furosemide IV 1.0 mg/kg if loop-diuretic naïve, 1.5 mg/kg if the patient has had a loop diuretic in the preceding week.

3

Replace — match urine losses mL-for-mL with isotonic crystalloid over the 2 hours. This is the step most often skipped and the one that turns the test into an iatrogenic insult.

4

Measure — hourly urine output for 2 hours via an accurate catheter.

5

Read<200 mL over 2 hours = a failed FST (equivalently, <100 mL in either hour). Passing means the tubule can still secrete an organic acid and still respond to NKCC2 blockade.

Furosemide is not filtered — it is albumin-bound and secreted into the lumen by proximal hOAT transporters,
then blocks Na-K-2Cl in the thick ascending limb.
So a failed FST means either the proximal tubule cannot secrete, or the loop cannot respond, or both. It is a direct functional interrogation of the nephron — not a surrogate.

Chawla LS, Davison DL, Brasha-Mitchell E, et al. Crit Care. 2013;17:R207 · Ronco Ch 9

The FST beats the biomarker panel — and the two together beat both

0.87AUC (SE 0.05) for progression to KDIGO stage 3 within 14 days
87 / 84% sensitivity / specificity at the 200 mL-in-2-h cut-off
0.86AUC for the need for kidney replacement therapy
0.90AUC for progression when the FST is applied to biomarker-positive patients
The headline result

In the Koyner follow-up of the Chawla cohort, no individual damage biomarker reached an AUC of 0.80 for AKI progression, while the FST reached 0.87 — and rose to 0.90 (progression) and 0.91 (KRT) when used in patients who were already biomarker-positive. A €5 ampoule of furosemide out-predicts the panel; the panel's value is in choosing who to stress-test.

Pitfall — the FST is a diagnostic test, not a therapeutic one

A patient who passes has not been "treated". A patient who fails must not then receive escalating furosemide infusions to chase urine — the diuretic does not change the natural history of AKI (Lecture 03), and the failed test is a prompt to plan for KRT, not to double the dose. Also avoid the FST in overt hypovolaemia, decompensated cirrhosis with tense ascites, and sulfa-anaphylaxis history.

Koyner JL, Davison DL, Brasha-Mitchell E, et al. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2015;26:2023–2031 · Ronco Ch 26 · Koyner Ch 16

AKI sub-phenotypes: one syndrome, at least two diseases

  • Latent class analysis of two critical-care cohorts found two reproducible AKI sub-phenotypes with different biology and very different outcomes
  • AKI-SP2 (hyperinflammatory) — higher soluble TNF receptor-1, angiopoietin-2/angiopoietin-1 ratio and ICAM-1; markedly higher mortality
  • AKI-SP1 (hypoinflammatory) — endothelial and inflammatory markers near normal; better survival despite an identical creatinine
  • In the VASST cohort there was a treatment-by-sub-phenotype interaction: vasopressin versus norepinephrine did not affect the two groups equally — the first real signal that AKI trials may have been diluted by lumping
  • Practical implication today: none of these markers is orderable. The lesson is interpretive — stop treating "AKI" as one exposure

Why this matters for every negative AKI trial you have read

If half of an enrolled population has haemodynamic AKI with an intact tubule and half has inflammatory tubular injury, a therapy that works well in one can be invisible in the pooled result. Enrichment — by biomarker, by sub-phenotype, or by a failed FST — is how the next generation of trials will be designed.

Bhatraju PK, Zelnick LR, Herting J, et al. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2019;199:863–872 · Koyner Ch 16

04

Risk scores & electronic alerts

Scores are excellent at describing populations and mediocre at deciding for individuals — know which job you are asking them to do.

Koyner Ch 7–8 · Ronco Ch 6, 16

Procedure-specific AKI risk scores worth knowing

ScorePopulation & derivationInputsOutput you can quote
Cleveland Clinic (Thakar)Cardiac surgery, ~33,000 patients13 items: female sex, CHF, LVEF <35%, IABP, COPD, insulin-requiring diabetes, prior cardiac surgery, emergency, valve/other surgery, preoperative creatinineRisk of dialysis-requiring AKI: ~0.5% at score 0–2 rising to >20% at ≥9
Mehta (STS)Cardiac surgery, STS national databaseBedside variables including age, race, sex, prior CABG, ejection fraction, shock, creatinine clearancePost-operative renal failure risk; designed for pre-operative consent conversations
Simplified Renal Index (Wijeysundera)Cardiac surgery, Ontario cohortsSix weighted items — the shortest usable pre-operative toolRisk of KRT after cardiac surgery; validated externally
MehranPercutaneous coronary interventionHypotension (5), IABP (5), CHF (5), age >75 (4), anaemia (3), diabetes (3), contrast volume (1 per 100 mL), eGFR (2/4/6)Contrast-associated AKI risk rising from ~7.5% at ≤5 points to ~57% at ≥16
Nephrotoxin exposure (NINJA)Hospitalised children, now spreading to adultsCount of concurrent nephrotoxic drugs; triggers automatic creatinine surveillanceSustained reductions in nephrotoxin-AKI as a quality-improvement programme
Renal angina indexPaediatric ICU; adult validation under wayRisk stratum × injury stratum (creatinine change and % fluid overload)AUROC 0.74–0.81; best used to decide who gets a biomarker

Thakar CV et al. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2005;16:162–168 · Mehta RH et al. Circulation. 2006;114:2208–2216 · Wijeysundera DN et al. JAMA. 2007;297:1801–1809 · Mehran R et al. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2004;44:1393–1399 · Basu RK et al. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2014;9:654–662 · Koyner Ch 7

ICU severity scores: what they are for, and what they are not

Mortality prediction models

  • APACHE II — 12 physiological variables + age + chronic health, worst value in the first 24 h. Still the most widely used
  • APACHE IV — maximum 286 points; score 56 ≈ 10% predicted mortality, 132 ≈ 90%. Takes ~37 minutes to compute by hand
  • SAPS III — 20 variables in three blocks, region-specific equations
  • In large external validations discrimination is moderate (c ≈ 0.80–0.83) but calibration consistently degrades and needs local recalibration

Organ dysfunction scores

  • SOFA — six systems, worst value each day; the only one that includes a treatment variable (vasopressor dose). An acute rise of ≥2 points defines organ dysfunction in Sepsis-3
  • SOFA >15 has been associated with ~90% mortality; a rise over the first 48 h with >50% mortality, a fall with ~27%
  • MODS and LODS — similar discrimination, less used
  • The renal SOFA sub-score is creatinine- and urine-output-based and therefore inherits every limitation from section 01
Pitfall — the self-fulfilling score

These models were built to compare units, not to triage patients. AKI-specific mortality models perform worse than general ICU models on external validation (most AUROC <0.7). Quoting a predicted mortality at the bedside risks a prophecy that fulfils itself.

Knaus WA et al. Crit Care Med. 1985;13:818 · Vincent JL et al. Intensive Care Med. 1996;22:707 · Harrison DA et al. Crit Care Med. 2007;35:1091 · Koyner Ch 7 · Ronco Ch 6

Electronic AKI alerts: detection without a pathway does nothing

Tackling AKI · stepped-wedge cluster RCT, 5 UK hospitals, 24,059 AKI episodes

E-alert + care bundle + education. No change in the primary outcome of 30-day mortality. Improved AKI recognition, shorter AKI duration and shorter length of stay — a process win, not a survival win.

Randomised alert trials · Lancet 2015 / BMJ 2021

Automated creatinine-triggered alerts delivered in isolation did not improve creatinine trajectory, dialysis, or death; in the multicentre replication the signal in some sites ran the wrong way. An alert without an owner and an action set is noise added to an already noisy ICU.

What this means for your hospital project

Build the response first — who is paged, what they must do in the next hour, and how it is audited. Then attach the trigger. The ICE-AKI and NINJA programmes worked because the alert was the smallest part of the intervention.

Selby NM et al. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2019;30:505–515 · Wilson FP et al. Lancet. 2015;385:1966–1974 · Wilson FP et al. BMJ. 2021;372:m4786 · Koyner Ch 8

05

Imaging the kidney and the venous side

Ultrasound answers binary questions superbly and continuous questions badly — ask it the right kind of question.

Koyner Ch 18 · Ronco Ch 33–35

Renal ultrasound: five questions, in this order

  1. Is there obstruction? Confluent, arborising anechoic spaces within the hyperechoic sinus fat — graded mild / moderate / severe
  2. Is this kidney chronically diseased? Length <9 cm, cortical thinning, parenchyma hyperechoic to liver — CKD, and it changes the whole prognosis
  3. Is the parenchyma abnormal? Echogenicity is compared to liver (right) and spleen (left); it is subjective and operator-dependent, so describe rather than score
  4. Is there a structural lesion? Cysts, masses, stones, perinephric collections, renal vein thrombus
  5. What does the bladder show? A distended bladder makes the upper tracts irrelevant until it is drained; bilateral ureteric jets on colour Doppler argue against, but do not exclude, obstruction
Bladder volume ≈ 0.52 × length × width × height (cm, scanned in two planes)
A "blocked catheter" and a neurogenic bladder are the two cheapest AKI cures in the hospital. Scan before you consult.
Pitfall — hydronephrosis is neither sensitive nor specific

False positives: parapelvic cysts (discrete, with posterior acoustic enhancement), prominent vasculature (use Doppler), brisk diuresis, diabetes insipidus, pregnancy, the denervated transplant. False negatives: obstruction in the first hours, encasing retroperitoneal malignancy or fibrosis, severe volume depletion, and the already-stented ureter. A normal scan in a patient with a compelling story buys a repeat scan or a CT, not reassurance.

Koyner Ch 18 · Faubel S et al. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2014;9:382–394 · O'Neill WC. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2014;9:373–381

Renal resistive index — a real signal buried in confounders

RRI = (peak systolic velocity − end-diastolic velocity) / peak systolic velocity
Measure in an interlobar artery near the mesorenal column; report the average of three cycles in each kidney.
  • Normal <0.70. In one comparative series, acute interstitial nephritis ran ~0.75 vs ~0.58 for acute glomerular disease; ATN, vasculitis and hepatorenal syndrome sit >0.78–0.82
  • Baseline RRI <0.68 after bypass, shock, trauma or sepsis identified patients who did not develop AKI; baseline >0.77–0.78 identified those who needed KRT within 1–5 days
  • A falling RRI toward a low-resistance waveform predicts recovery, and it falls before the creatinine does

Everything that moves the number

  • Age, atherosclerosis, chronic hypertension (all raise it)
  • Heart rate, arrhythmia, aortic regurgitation, low pulse pressure
  • Intra-abdominal hypertension, high PEEP, vasopressor dose
  • Operator angle, depth and gain settings
  • Which is why RRI is a trend within a patient, never a threshold across patients

Ronco Ch 33 · Koyner Ch 18 · Darmon M et al. Intensive Care Med. 2011;37:68–76

VExUS — grading venous congestion 0 to 3

VeinNormalMildSevere
Hepatic veinS wave larger than D waveS wave smaller than D but still below baselineS wave reversed (above baseline)
Portal veinContinuous, pulsatility <30%Pulsatility 30–49%Pulsatility ≥50%
Intrarenal veinContinuousBiphasic (systolic + diastolic components)Monophasic, diastolic only
0IVC <2 cm — no congestion, regardless of the venous waveforms
1IVC ≥2 cm with only mild abnormalities
2IVC ≥2 cm with one severe pattern
3IVC ≥2 cm with two or more severe patterns
Why the nephrologist should own this

In the derivation cardiac-surgery cohort, VExUS grade 3 carried a hazard ratio of 3.69 (95% CI 1.65–8.24) for subsequent AKI — a stronger association than CVP alone. A grade-3 kidney needs decongestion, not perfusion pressure: giving fluid or raising MAP here makes it worse (see Lecture 02). Grades are for hypervolaemia; VExUS says nothing useful in a hypovolaemic or a fluid-naïve patient.

Beaubien-Souligny W, Rola P, Haycock K, et al. Ultrasound J. 2020;12:16 · Koyner Ch 18 · Ronco Ch 33

The rest of the volume examination — and when to leave ultrasound

Lung

  • B-lines: vertical reverberation artefacts that abolish A-lines. One per field is normal; >2 per field is pathological and the count scales with extravascular lung water
  • Diffuse and homogeneous → cardiogenic oedema; patchy with thickened pleura and subpleural consolidations → ARDS
  • In dialysis patients B-lines beat the physical examination for overload and fall dynamically with ultrafiltration

IVC

  • Measured 2 cm below the diaphragm, confirmed by hepatic vein continuity
  • Useful only at the extremes: flat and collapsing, or plethoric and fixed
  • Invalidated by positive-pressure ventilation, RV failure, pulmonary hypertension, tamponade and raised intra-abdominal pressure

Beyond ultrasound

  • Non-contrast CT — stones, retroperitoneal disease, an equivocal ultrasound in a large patient
  • Contrast-enhanced ultrasound — regional cortical perfusion with no nephrotoxicity; promising, no standard protocol
  • MR / nuclear — rarely justifies moving an unstable ICU patient; gadolinium raises the NSF question in eGFR <30
Read the pattern, not the number

Plethoric IVC + diffuse B-lines + monophasic renal venous flow is a congested kidney. Flat IVC + A-lines + consolidation is a septic, under-filled kidney. Neither conclusion depends on any single measurement being right.

Koyner Ch 18 · Lichtenstein DA, Mezière GA. Chest. 2008;134:117–125 (BLUE) · Zoccali C et al. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2013;24:639–646 · Ronco Ch 34–35

06

Contrast-associated AKI

The most over-feared diagnosis in the hospital — and the fear itself now causes measurable harm.

Koyner Ch 44 · Ronco Ch 35

What the control groups did to contrast nephropathy

  • Reported incidence is entirely definition-dependent: in CKD stage 3–4, a ≥25% creatinine rise occurred in 13.2% after non-coronary angiography, 8.5% after coronary angiography and 6.5% after contrast CT. ICU series report 11.5–19%
  • Then someone scanned the control group. In CKD patients, AKI after non-contrast CT was 8.8% — versus 9.7% with iodixanol and 9.9% with iohexol
  • Meta-analysis of 13 studies: risk of AKI after contrast-enhanced versus non-enhanced imaging, RR 0.79 (95% CI 0.62–1.02)
  • Propensity-matched cohort of 6,877 ICU patients: no difference in AKI with contrast, OR 0.88 (0.75–1.05)
  • These are observational and residually confounded — but they establish that most of what we called contrast nephropathy was the background noise of critical illness

The association that remains

CA-AKI, when it occurs, is associated with in-hospital death (7.1% vs 1.1% after PCI), a roughly 3-fold higher 1-year risk of death/stroke/MI/ESKD, ~2 extra hospital days and faster CKD progression. Causality is unproven — CA-AKI may simply mark the patient with less reserve and more instability.

Weisbord SD et al. · Bruce RJ et al. AJR. 2009;192:711 · McDonald JS et al. Radiology. 2013;267:119–128 · McCullough PA et al. · Koyner Ch 44

Who is genuinely at risk — and who is not

PatientReal risk?What to do
eGFR ≥45, stable, IV contrast CTEffectively noneScan. No prophylaxis, no delay, no post-scan creatinine ritual
eGFR 30–44, stableSmallScan. Isotonic saline is reasonable but AMACING found no benefit; check creatinine at 48–96 h
eGFR <30, or AKI in evolutionYes — the principal patient-related risk factorLowest contrast volume, isotonic saline, stop NSAIDs, discuss alternatives with radiology — then scan if indicated
Intra-arterial, first-pass renal exposureYes — higher than IV for the same doseApplies to coronary and aortic angiography; minimise volume and repeat exposures
Volume depleted, hypotensive, on IABPYes — and it is modifiableResuscitate first if the clock allows; this matters more than the contrast agent
Repeat contrast within 48–72 hYesConsolidate imaging; ask whether the second study changes management
Diabetes with normal kidney functionNo independent riskDiabetes amplifies risk only when CKD is present
ESKD on maintenance dialysisNo residual function to loseScan freely. No urgent dialysis "to remove contrast" — prophylactic haemodialysis is potentially harmful

Koyner Ch 44 · Davenport MS et al. Radiology. 2020;294:660–668 (ACR/NKF consensus)

Prophylaxis: what two large trials abolished

PRESERVE · N Engl J Med 2018;378:603

4,993 patients with CKD undergoing non-emergent angiography, 2×2 factorial. Oral N-acetylcysteine 600 mg twice daily for 5 days vs placebo: 90-day death, dialysis or persistent kidney impairment OR 1.02 (0.78–1.33); CA-AKI OR 1.06 (0.87–1.28). IV isotonic sodium bicarbonate vs isotonic saline: composite OR 0.93 (0.72–1.22); CA-AKI OR 1.16 (0.96–1.41). Both interventions dead.

AMACING · Lancet 2017;389:1312

660 high-risk patients with eGFR 30–59 randomised to prophylactic IV hydration or no prophylaxis before elective contrast. CA-AKI 2.6% with no prophylaxis vs 2.7% with hydration — non-inferior, cheaper, and with fewer complications of fluid administration.

What survives

  • Isotonic saline in genuinely high-risk patients: 1 mL/kg/h for 12 h before, during and after; or 3 mL/kg/h for 1 h pre, 1–1.5 mL/kg/h during, 4–6 h after
  • Lowest volume of low- or iso-osmolal contrast (they are equivalent to each other; both beat high-osmolal)
  • Hold NSAIDs until CA-AKI has been excluded
  • Recheck creatinine at 48–96 h in at-risk patients

What does not

  • N-acetylcysteine, sodium bicarbonate, statins started for this purpose
  • Furosemide, dopamine, fenoldopam — potentially harmful
  • Prophylactic haemodialysis; CRRT data are conflicting and insufficient
  • Stopping ACEi/ARB or diuretics routinely — the data do not support it
  • POSEIDON showed fluid can be given safely even with a raised LVEDP, so "heart failure" is not an automatic exemption

Weisbord SD et al. N Engl J Med. 2018;378:603–614 · Nijssen EC et al. Lancet. 2017;389:1312–1322 · Brar SS et al. Lancet. 2014;383:1814 (POSEIDON) · Koyner Ch 44

"Renalism": the arithmetic nobody does out loud

The harm we can measure

  • In >57,000 patients with acute myocardial infarction, those with CKD were about 50% less likely to undergo coronary angiography
  • Observational data show a survival advantage for CKD patients who do undergo angiography and revascularisation
  • Untreated pulmonary embolism carries a mortality around 25–30%; an aortic dissection missed for six hours is often fatal
  • The comparator is not "AKI vs no AKI" — it is a small, mostly transient creatinine rise against a missed lethal diagnosis

The consult you should actually give

  • "Yes, scan. Here is how we de-risk it."
  • Name the fluid, the volume limit and the recheck interval in the note
  • Correct hypotension and hypovolaemia first if the clock permits — that is the modifiable risk factor
  • Refuse only when an equally diagnostic non-contrast alternative genuinely exists
Key point

The nephrologist's job in the contrast conversation is to de-risk, not to block. Every avoided study has a cost that never appears in the kidney outcome literature, because the patient who died of the undiagnosed condition was never counted as a contrast complication.

Chertow GM et al. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2004;15:2462 (renalism) · Koyner Ch 44 · Davenport MS et al. Radiology. 2020;294:660–668

07

Cases & wrap-up

Two consults where the tests we have just discussed genuinely change the plan — and one where they must not.

Koyner Ch 8, 16, 18, 44
Case 1 · Post-cardiac surgery, hour 4

71 M, redo mitral valve replacement, 168 min on cardiopulmonary bypass, EF 40%, insulin-requiring diabetes, pre-operative creatinine 1.4 mg/dL (eGFR 48). The ICU asks whether they should "send a NephroCheck".

Cr 1.4 (unchanged)UO 0.6 mL/kg/hMAP 68CVP 14NE 0.08 µg/kg/minLactate 2.4[TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] 2.8

Cleveland Clinic score puts him at high risk. The biomarker is 2.8. What exactly changes in the next 12 hours — and what must not?

Think 45 seconds · answer on the next slide

Case 1 — what the evidence supports doing

01

Confirm the windowBiomarker drawn 4 h post-bypass, no established stage 2–3 AKI — the test is being used exactly as validated

02

Deploy the bundleHold ACEi/ARB 48 h, remove nephrotoxins, glucose control, defer elective contrast, optimise haemodynamics

03

Fix the gradientMAP 68 − CVP 14 = RPP 54 mmHg. Decongest or raise MAP — decide which, then reassess

04

Re-measureCreatinine and urine output q12h; repeat biomarker only if it will change the plan again

The one-line summary

A high [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] earns this patient an hour of attention, not a dialysis catheter. In PrevAKI that hour was worth an absolute reduction of about 15 percentage points in AKI at 72 h.

Meersch M et al. Intensive Care Med. 2017;43:1551–1561 · Zarbock A et al. Anesth Analg. 2021;133:292–302 · Koyner Ch 8, 39

Case 2 · Septic shock, day 3 — the creatinine has stalled

58 F, urosepsis, off vasopressors since yesterday, cumulative balance +6.5 L. Creatinine rose 0.8 → 2.1 mg/dL over 48 h and has now been flat for 24 h. The team wants to know whether she is recovering or heading for dialysis.

Cr 2.1 (flat 24 h)UO 0.35 mL/kg/hK⁺ 4.9HCO₃⁻ 19MAP 74CVP 15IVC 2.4 cmPortal pulsatility 55%Monophasic renal venous flow

Name the VExUS grade. Then decide: furosemide stress test now, or not yet?

Two answers required — grade, then action

Case 2 — the two tests that answered the question

VExUS grade 3

  • IVC 2.4 cm + portal pulsatility 55% + monophasic intrarenal venous flow = two severe patterns
  • The renal problem is back-pressure, not forward flow: MAP 74 − CVP 15 gives a renal perfusion pressure of 59 mmHg
  • Therapy is decongestion. Fluid or a higher MAP target here makes the kidney worse

Furosemide stress test

  • Furosemide 1.0 mg/kg IV (loop-naïve), urine counted hourly for 2 h
  • ≥200 mL → tubule intact: proceed with a loop infusion and tolerate a modest creatinine rise during effective decongestion
  • <200 mL → AUC 0.87 for progression to stage 3, 0.86 for KRT: secure access, brief the family, stop escalating the diuretic
The trap in this case

A creatinine that has been flat for 24 h feels like recovery. It is equally consistent with a new steady state at a much lower GFR, or with reduced creatinine generation in a catabolic, immobile patient. Neither the number nor its slope can distinguish these — only a functional test and the urine output can.

Chawla LS et al. Crit Care. 2013;17:R207 · Koyner JL et al. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2015;26:2023–2031 · Beaubien-Souligny W et al. Ultrasound J. 2020;12:16

Quick poll

A 63-year-old admitted 30 hours ago with community-acquired pneumonia. Creatinine 1.1 (baseline 1.0), urine output 0.9 mL/kg/h, no vasopressors, no contrast planned. The night registrar sent a [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7]: it comes back at 0.9.

A. Start prophylactic KRT planning · B. Give a 1 L fluid bolus · C. Deploy the KDIGO bundle and repeat the biomarker in 12 h · D. Note that the test should not have been sent, interpret it in the light of the low pre-test probability, and manage the pneumonia

Hands up — then name the property of the test that makes your answer correct

Key takeaways

  • Creatinine lags 2–3 days, is diluted by resuscitation, tracks muscle mass, and is raised by trimethoprim, cimetidine, cobicistat and dolutegravir without any change in GFR — cystatin C and the CKD-EPI 2021 combined equation settle the argument.
  • Think in the damage × function 2×2: subclinical AKI (damage without a creatinine rise) carries real excess KRT and mortality, and haemodynamic AKI (creatinine rise without damage) does not.
  • [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] answers exactly one question — stage 2–3 AKI within 12 h — with cut-offs 0.3 (sensitivity 92%) and 2.0 (specificity 90%) from Sapphire, validated in Topaz and Opal, and useless outside that population.
  • No biomarker has improved an outcome on its own; PrevAKI, PrevAKI-MC and BigpAK improved outcomes by using the biomarker to select who receives the KDIGO care bundle.
  • The furosemide stress test (1.0–1.5 mg/kg, <200 mL in 2 h = failure) reaches AUC 0.87 for progression to stage 3 and out-predicts every damage biomarker — and rises to 0.90 when combined with them.
  • Ultrasound answers binary questions: obstruction, chronicity, and VExUS grade. Contrast is safe in eGFR ≥30; skip N-acetylcysteine and bicarbonate (PRESERVE), skip routine prophylactic hydration in eGFR 30–59 (AMACING), and never let renalism delay a study that could save the patient.

References & further reading

Where to go deeper

  1. Kashani K, Al-Khafaji A, Ardiles T, et al. Discovery and validation of cell cycle arrest biomarkers in human acute kidney injury (Sapphire). Crit Care. 2013;17:R25.
  2. Bihorac A, Chawla LS, Shaw AD, et al. Validation of cell-cycle arrest biomarkers for acute kidney injury using clinical adjudication (Topaz). Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2014;189:932–939.
  3. Chawla LS, Davison DL, Brasha-Mitchell E, et al. Development and standardization of a furosemide stress test to predict the severity of acute kidney injury. Crit Care. 2013;17:R207. — and Koyner JL, Davison DL, Brasha-Mitchell E, et al. Furosemide stress test and biomarkers for the prediction of AKI severity. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2015;26:2023–2031.
  4. Meersch M, Schmidt C, Hoffmeier A, et al. Prevention of cardiac surgery-associated AKI by implementing the KDIGO guidelines in high-risk patients identified by biomarkers: the PrevAKI randomised controlled trial. Intensive Care Med. 2017;43:1551–1561.
  5. Inker LA, Eneanya ND, Coresh J, et al. New creatinine- and cystatin C-based equations to estimate GFR without race. N Engl J Med. 2021;385:1737–1749.
  6. Bhatraju PK, Zelnick LR, Herting J, et al. Identification of acute kidney injury subphenotypes with differing molecular signatures and responses to vasopressin therapy. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2019;199:863–872.
  7. Weisbord SD, Gallagher M, Jneid H, et al. Outcomes after angiography with sodium bicarbonate and acetylcysteine (PRESERVE). N Engl J Med. 2018;378:603–614. — and Nijssen EC, Rennenberg RJ, Nelemans PJ, et al. Prophylactic hydration to protect renal function from intravascular iodinated contrast material (AMACING). Lancet. 2017;389:1312–1322.
  8. Beaubien-Souligny W, Rola P, Haycock K, et al. Quantifying systemic congestion with point-of-care ultrasound: the VExUS grading system. Ultrasound J. 2020;12:16. · Koyner JL, Topf JM, Lerma EV, eds. Handbook of Critical Care Nephrology. Wolters Kluwer; 2021 (Ch 7, 8, 16–18, 39, 44).
Critical Care Nephrology · Two-Week Intensive

Thank you

Questions & discussion — bring one test you will stop ordering and one you will start.

Next: Lecture 05 — Sodium Disorders in the ICU